According to @KobeissiLetter, US job cut announcements rose 58% year over year in 2025 to 1,206,374, the highest total since 2020 and the second-highest annual reading since 2009 based on Challenger, Gray & Christmas tracking since 1989, source: @KobeissiLetter citing Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The average monthly pace of job cuts exceeded 100,000 for the first time in five years, source: @KobeissiLetter. The government sector led with 308,167 job cuts, followed by technology with 154,445 and warehousing with 95,317, highlighting where traders may focus sector risk and rotation, source: @KobeissiLetter. The author summarized 2025 as a rough year for the US job market, source: @KobeissiLetter.

According to Charlie Bilello, the S&P 500 is trading at 3.3 times sales, the highest valuation on record as of Jan 4, 2026, source: Charlie Bilello on X. Elevated valuation multiples have historically been linked with lower subsequent long-horizon equity returns, signaling higher valuation risk for SPX exposure, source: Campbell and Shiller, Journal of Portfolio Management 1998 and Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report 2024. For crypto traders, equity to crypto spillovers matter because Bitcoin BTC and U.S. equities have shown persistent positive return correlations since 2020, source: IMF Global Financial Stability Note 2022 Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks and Coin Metrics correlation reports 2020 to 2022. During equity stress, volatility hedges such as the VIX, which typically moves inversely to the S&P 500, are widely monitored alongside crypto risk metrics to manage drawdowns, source: Cboe VIX education and Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report 2024.

According to @BullTheoryio, the market assigns 98.4% odds to a 25 bps BOJ hike tomorrow, which would lift the policy rate to 0.75%, the highest since 1995, source: @BullTheoryio on X, Dec 18, 2025. According to @BullTheoryio, after the BOJ raised rates to 0.25% on July 31, 2024, Bitcoin fell 26% over the following 8 days, source: @BullTheoryio on X, Dec 18, 2025. According to @BullTheoryio, after the BOJ raised rates to 0.50% on Jan 24, 2025, Bitcoin declined 25% over 20 days, source: @BullTheoryio on X, Dec 18, 2025. According to @BullTheoryio, similar downside could occur around this decision, although past BOJ-driven BTC selloffs were followed by strong recoveries to new all-time highs, source: @BullTheoryio on X, Dec 18, 2025.

According to the source, Bitcoin (BTC) fell after the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate as traders focused on the FOMC’s guidance that inflation remains above target and policy will remain data-dependent, dampening risk appetite (source: Federal Reserve, FOMC statement). BTC traded lower on major spot venues during and after the policy announcement, signaling a risk-off reaction despite easier headline policy (source: TradingView BTCUSD intraday data; Coinbase BTC-USD price feed). The move underscores that forward guidance and inflation language, rather than the rate move alone, are steering near-term crypto flows and volatility (source: Federal Reserve, FOMC statement).

According to @milesdeutscher, traders should be doing everything possible to leverage AI right now for an edge in fast-moving markets (source: @milesdeutscher on X). According to Polymarket, U.S. layoffs are set to surpass Great Recession levels and are on track to be the worst since the Great Depression, signaling elevated macro risk headlines to watch (source: Polymarket on X). According to @milesdeutscher and Polymarket, the pairing of urgent AI adoption with worsening layoff signals underscores a risk-sensitive backdrop that crypto traders should monitor using AI tools for real-time news ingestion and execution (sources: @milesdeutscher on X; Polymarket on X).

According to Charlie Bilello, Japan’s 30-year government bond yield jumped to 3.37 percent, which he describes as the highest level on record and a notable macro datapoint for cross-asset positioning in rate sensitive markets including BTC and ETH. Source: Charlie Bilello.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, Bitcoin (BTC) remains a canary in the macro coal mine but a lot of bad news already appears to be priced in, signaling that recent negative macro headlines may have diminished incremental downside impact on BTC, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Nov 26, 2025. According to @Andre_Dragosch, this positioning view frames BTC as a leading indicator for risk sentiment while suggesting recent macro stress has been discounted by the market, which is directly relevant for traders assessing near-term BTC price resilience, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Nov 26, 2025.

According to @CNBC, Donald Trump pardoned Thanksgiving turkeys, criticized President Joe Biden, and stated that a Ukraine peace deal is very close during a Thanksgiving event, signaling a notable geopolitical headline for traders to monitor, source: CNBC. According to @CNBC, the post highlights Trump’s claim of imminent progress on Ukraine without providing policy specifics, source: CNBC. According to @CNBC, no market pricing, negotiation timeline, or further details were included in the post, source: CNBC.

According to the source, Bitcoin (BTC) has recorded its longest losing streak since 2024, with a cautious rebound emerging as markets reprice Federal Reserve policy expectations; source: https://twitter.com/DecryptMedia/status/1992811469667201245. For traders, the headline indicates macro-driven flows remain in control of BTC near term, with the rebound linked to Fed repricing rather than idiosyncratic crypto catalysts; source: https://twitter.com/DecryptMedia/status/1992811469667201245.

According to @stocktalkweekly, the author posted a brief remark saying 'Okay... shut the government back down' without providing tickers, price levels, timeframes, or context. Source: @stocktalkweekly. The post contains no references to equities, rates, or cryptocurrencies and offers no market data or catalysts for trading decisions. Source: @stocktalkweekly. Consequently, there is no direct, source-backed trading signal or actionable risk management takeaway from this post alone, and no explicit impact on crypto markets is indicated. Source: @stocktalkweekly.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the shutdown’s final tally includes 5 million airline passengers delayed or canceled, 619 billion dollars in new federal debt, a federal statistical system described as permanently damaged, 43 days of delayed economic data, potential non-release of October jobs and inflation reports, and 750,000 federal workers furloughed, with funding only extended through January 30. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Nov 13, 2025. According to @KobeissiLetter, the potential absence of October CPI and jobs reports removes key inputs that markets use to price interest rate expectations. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Nov 13, 2025; CME Group FedWatch Tool. Crypto markets have shown sensitivity to US macro data surprises and cross-asset risk sentiment, making a prolonged data blackout a relevant factor for BTC and ETH traders to monitor. Source: Coin Metrics research 2023–2024.

According to @stocktalkweekly, the U.S. Senate approved a bill to reopen the government with a 60-40 yes vote. According to @stocktalkweekly, eight Democrats voted with Republicans—John Fetterman, Dick Durbin, Tim Kaine, Angus King, Catherine Cortez Masto, Jeanne Shaheen, Maggie Hassan, and Jacky Rosen—indicating bipartisan support. According to @stocktalkweekly, the update explicitly characterizes the measure as reopening the government and provides no additional procedural details.

According to @business, Senate Republican leader John Thune said a deal is coming together and set a Sunday test vote on a narrow spending package intended to end the U.S. government shutdown if approved, source: Bloomberg (@business), Nov 9, 2025. For trading desks tracking macro risk, the Sunday vote timing and the package’s stated goal to reopen the government create a clear headline window to monitor across U.S. futures and 24/7 crypto markets, source: Bloomberg (@business), Nov 9, 2025.

According to @business, the Federal Reserve's semi-annual Financial Stability Report flagged notable vulnerabilities tied to financial leverage; source: Bloomberg/@business. According to @business, the report also stated the US banking system remained sound and resilient; source: Bloomberg/@business.

According to the source, BTC outperformed ETH over the weekend as tit-for-tat tariffs and trade headlines stoked economic concerns, testing a months-long trend in their relative performance, source: X post dated Oct 14, 2025.

According to @business, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon flagged a weakening labor market and sticky inflation as the bank reported provisions for credit losses that were slightly higher than expected, source: Bloomberg (@business), Oct 14, 2025. According to @business, the update underscores macro risks that markets are tracking into upcoming data, with potential implications for risk assets including BTC and ETH, source: Bloomberg (@business), Oct 14, 2025.

According to @CryptoMichNL, gold’s strong move higher increases the upside potential for Bitcoin BTC, highlighting a constructive setup for crypto if safe-haven flows persist; source: X - @CryptoMichNL, Oct 8, 2025. According to @CryptoMichNL, the same gold surge also suggests something is cracking in the broader economy, elevating macro risk considerations for crypto traders; source: X - @CryptoMichNL, Oct 8, 2025.

According to @CNBC, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon warned that a stock market drawdown is coming and said 'People won’t feel good,' highlighting a cautious outlook for risk assets as reported on Oct 3, 2025. source: CNBC For trading relevance, this headline serves as a macro risk cue that market participants in equities and crypto (including BTC and ETH) may monitor for short-term positioning and volatility management. source: CNBC

According to @KobeissiLetter, historical data show that market dips on US government shutdown headlines were bought over 85% of the time, source: The Kobeissi Letter, Oct 1, 2025. For crypto, BTC and ETH have shown elevated positive correlation with US equities during macro-driven risk swings, so equity dip-buying has historically coincided with crypto bid recovery, source: Kaiko Research, 2023.

According to the source, Polymarket market pricing implies a 76% probability of a U.S. government shutdown in 2025 as of Sep 24, 2025, signaling elevated event risk to monitor for crypto positioning; source: Polymarket market data. Macro-policy uncertainty such as U.S. funding lapses has been associated with tighter cross-asset correlations that can transmit volatility to crypto assets including BTC and ETH; source: International Monetary Fund research (IMF, 2022). Historically, the longest U.S. shutdown lasted 35 days (Dec 2018–Jan 2019), underscoring tail-risk duration for markets; source: Congressional Research Service. Traders should track changes in the Polymarket odds alongside the U.S. appropriations process as practical catalysts for crypto volatility; source: Polymarket market data; Congressional Research Service.